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Ethereal news weekly #26

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Justin Drake qday odds: 10% by 2030 & 50% by 2032, Aave rsETH post mortem, glamsterdam-devnet-5 launched

Ecosystem

  • Justin Drake qday odds: 10% by 2030 & 50% by 2032 (day when a quantum computer breaks first piece of cryptography in production)
    • 2029 is good target for migration, selected by Google, Cloudflare & EF
    • Google’s Shor optimization (published only as ZK proof) rediscovered by AndrĂ© Schrottenloher
    • ECDSA.fail: circuit improvement leaderboard, measured by qubit count multiplied by Toffoli-gate count
  • Ethereum Foundation:
  • Tom Lee (Bitmine Chair): Ethereum too big to be coordinated by single foundation, digital asset treasury companies can fund grants from ~$500M in staking rewards
  • Joseph Chalom (Sharplink CEO): Ethereum going back on offense, digital asset treasury companies & core stewards playing large role in filling gap in go-to-market leadership
  • Devcon 8 volunteer applications
  • ETHCluj conference videos
  • ETH metrics:
    • Gas (gwei): 0.4 average, 0.1 -12.7 (12.9 for zero net issuance)
    • ETH supply change: 19k net issuance (7 days)
    • ETHUSD:$1,655 - $2,038 (all time high $4,946, August 24, 2025)
    • ETH ETFs: 5.2% of ETH supply
    • ETHBTC: 0.027 (0.166 for the Flippening)

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Enterprise

  • Mastercard will support stablecoin settlement with Circle USDC, Paxos PYUSD, USDG & USDP and SoFi SoFiUSD across 8 chains including mainnet, Arbitrum & Base
  • Checkout.com: enables merchants to accept stablecoins via Coinbase Payments & US merchants to receive stablecoin settlement via Fireblocks

Applications

Developers

  • Vyper (language):
    • v0.5.0a2 (alpha): adds unbounded types & doc on deep verification
    • Banteg vyupgrade (tool): rewrite 0.1.0b+ contracts in modern Vyper, compiles source & result and compares ABI, method identifiers & storage layout
  • Nomic Foundation Hardhat (dev framework):
  • EthereumJS v10.1.2 (TypeScript libraries): experimental Glamsterdam upgrade support
  • Adrian Sutton exec-rest-api: REST API proxy for execution layer clients JSON-RPC
  • MetaMask embedded wallets: adds developer dashboard, smart account support & access controls
  • EF Institutional Privacy Task Force (IPTF): resilience series, plural identity, disbursement rails & civic participation
  • Application layer standards (ERCs):
    • ERC8280: Contract runtime apps
    • ERC8281: Observation commitment protocol
    • ERC8283: Clear signing descriptors onchain registry
    • ERC8284: Wallet scoped token pull execution
    • ERC8285: Wallet scoped NFT pull execution
    • ERC8286: Modular accounts for frame transactions
    • ERC8287: Privacy native fungible tokens

Agents

  • Veil MCP: agents can make private x402 payments via shielded USDC pool on Base

Security

All core devs (main protocol calls)

All core devs - execution (ACDE) #238

  • Glamsterdam upgrade (targeting mid-2026):
    • glamsterdam-devnet-5 launched, glamsterdam-devnet-4 spec + EIP8045 exclude slashed validators from proposing
    • bal-devnet-7 was last execution layer focused devnet
    • glamsterdam-devnet-6 (spec): targeting ~2 weeks with remaining execution layer EIPs (EIP7997 deterministic factory predeploy & EIP8246 remove SELFDESTRUCT burn) and preliminary repricing numbers
  • Hegotá upgrade (targeting late-2026):
    • Non-headliners proposed for inclusion:
      • Data repricing presentation: EIP8131 add auth data to EIP7623 floor + EIP8279 block access list byte floor
      • EIP7979 call & return opcodes
      • EOA migration to smart accounts: EIP7851 code controlled EOA delegation + EIP8151 ECDSA authority deactivation aware ecRecover; discussed set code as broader alternative
  • EIP8222 lean staking presentation, staking deposits & withdrawals via privacy pool

All core devs - testing (ACDT) #81

Layer 1

  • Consensus-specs v1.7.0-alpha.10
  • Hegotá upgrade (targeting late-2026):
    • FOCIL breakout #35: preparing devnet-0 based on stable Glamsterdam devnet
  • ethPandaOps Panda (CLI, MCP & Python sandbox): single interface for data stack (ClickHouse, Prometheus, Loki, Dora and beacon & execution nodes)
  • Ethereum improvement proposals (EIPs):
    • EIP8282: Builder execution requests

Research

Staking

  • Eth-validator-stats (CLI): self hosted validator monitoring, talks to local beacon node (no third-party telemetry), phone push notifications via ntfy
  • Client diversity:
    • Consensus layer: Lighthouse ~54% (data may not be accurate)
  • Staking market share: Lido 22% [Note: dual governance]
  • Validators: 890k active (target 128k), 14k accumulating (0x02 withdrawal credentials)
  • Client releases:
    • Execution layer:
      • Besu 26.6.0 (recommended): requires Java 25+, block number & hash parameters in RPCs changed to hex only for compatibility
      • Erigon v3.4.3 (recommended): fix post-reorg state leak & improves Engine API performance by failing fast on backward downloads beyond reorg limit
      • Lambda ethrex v15.0.0: adds Kademlia implementation, improves network scalability & resilience against peer churn
      • Nethermind 1.38.0: Glamsterdam upgrade work, performance improvements, EraE support for historical data pruning & backfill from archive and P2P rewritten

Regulation

General

  • Alephium (alt L1) bridge exploit via forged Wormhole message, ~$305k in collateral stolen + 500k unbacked wALPH realized
  • Dankrad Feist: passkey explainer, treat passkeys on phones or password managers as hot wallets

Editor: @abcoathup
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Ethereal news weekly #25